Oscar Picks and Preferences 2020

Again, I, like many others, will be watching the Oscar ceremony and enduring the seemingly unending doling out of awards. But, if you are a film fan, it is still exciting to see if your predictions turn out to be correct, and frustrating to have your favorites lose. For what it’s worth, here are my picks and preferences for the 2020 Academy Awards:

Best Motion Picture:

There are a couple of films that I would have included under this category that were not nominated. Harriet is not only about the heroic Underground Railroad heroine, but it also shows the psychology of different types of people who lived during that time, including African Americans who were traitors to their own race. Judy smartly found its dramatic focus on the concerts just prior to Judy Garland’s death, while providing enough flashbacks to indict the Hollywood studio system that drove her on the defaced yellow brick road to self-destruction. 

I believe those two films are more successful works than Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood, which I stated before, is one of Quentin Tarentino’s lesser projects because of its lack of wit.  JoJo Rabbit contains some very funny, dark satirical aspects, but it is an uneven movie, mixing in dramatically sad elements that don’t mesh well. As noted last week, Little Women is effective in bringing the famous story up to date in stressing the importance of women to have choices in their lives. It also develops the relationships between the supporting characters. But, the use of shifting time periods interrupts the dramatic flow of the character arcs in a story told many times and which the audience already knows the fate of the individuals. The only surprise is the ending for Jo, which is successfully enigmatic. Ford v Ferrari is a strong story that is similar in its theme to Apollo 13 about the nostalgia for a can-do America, while also showing how corporate greed tries to stunt individual achievement. Marriage Story is a powerful, well-written film that ironically shows how divorce has become part of so many marriage stories. The Irishman successfully deglamorizes the gangster life by presenting pathetic gangsters who live unhappy, threatened lives, and has a scope that shows corruption in unions and politics. Joker, discussed last week, is a daring movie that is apocalyptic in scope that shows how the abuse of the masses will not end well for the elite. The same theme exists in what I think was the best picture of the year, Parasite (also addressed last week). This film is more personal in exploring the effect of the marginalization of social classes, and it shows how the domino effect of the subordination of people causes violence between all levels of society. The movie I believe will win the Oscar is 1917. It is a very impressive piece of moviemaking. The extended tracking shots in the trenches during WWI are a homage to Stanley Kubrick’s Paths of Glory, which, like 1917 is an anti-war tale about the toll exacted on individual men. Using the seemingly one-shot movie makes the audience feel as if it is in the middle of the story with the main characters. The film is ironic by depicting a mission to save lives in the middle of a war whose purpose is to eliminate soldiers to the frightening point where victory is only won when there is a “last man standing.” The movie has won all the preliminary citations, including the Producers Guild award.

Pick: 1917

Preference: Parasite (by a nose over 1917 and Joker)

Best Supporting Actress:

Scarlett Johansson adds style and whimsy along with pathos to her brief performance in JoJo Rabbit. Florence Pugh brought us a stronger and wiser Amy in Little Women. But they and Margot Robbie for Bombshell and Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell will not be able to stop Laura Dern this year for her both empathetic and also a bit scary divorce lawyer in Marriage Story. She has won all of the preliminary awards, including the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild awards, and deservedly so.

Pick: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Preference: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Best Supporting Actor:

Al Pacino was powerful as Jimmy Hoffa in The Irishman, but his over-the-top performance is what we have seen in many of his roles over the years, so it was not a stretch for him as an actor. Joe Pesci, however, played what was for him a restrained performance that still showed menace behind the mild facade. Anthony Hopkins was effective as the abdicating Pope Benedict who was out of touch with modern times in The Two Popes. Brad Pitt’s performance in Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is not up to his level of work in such films as Twelve Monkeys, Legends of the Fall, and Fight Club (although I did enjoy his anonymous stuntman kicking the butt of the famous Bruce Lee). But he has received all of the major awards so far for this film, and he will take home the Oscar. But, it is Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood who stands out in this category. He not only gets the movements and speech patterns of Fred Rogers down in this performance, but somehow shows the intelligence behind the contemplative appearance of the man, who acts as a kind of anger management therapist in this movie. 

Pick: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Preference: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Actress:

Charlize Theron in Bombshell does an excellent job of imitating journalist Megyn Kelly. But it also seems a bit stilted, not getting us to feel for the woman behind the cause. Also, the movie, like Little Women, is more of an ensemble piece. Although Saoirse Ronan gives us a dynamic Jo, she does not dominate in her portrayal of the most rebellious sister in the March family. Scarlett Johansson presents an unglamorous, authentic performance as the anguished wife and mother in Marriage Story. Cynthia Erivo shows us Harriet Tubman as a force of nature in Harriet (if you haven’t seen her in the HBO series The Outsider, you should). But, it is Renee Zellweger’s year. She must carry the entire film as Judy Garland in Judy, and she delivers the performer’s suffering and humor along with the voice and movements of the star. She has also won the preliminary awards, and she will take home the Oscar.

Pick: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Preference: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio has turned in some excellent performances during his career. I don’t think his work in Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood is up to his usual standards. He seems almost cartoonish as the fading movie star, although that could be blamed on the script. Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory is very moving as a gay man in Catholic Spain who suffers from physical and psychological pain and uses his tribulations to fuel his filmmaking (the movie has a wonderful twist at the end). Jonathan Pryce is convincing as the modern Pope Francis in The Two Popes, a man who also has sins to confess about his compliance with the authoritarian government while in Argentina. Adam Driver has become one of my favorite actors, bringing range and intensity to his roles. He is very convincing as the husband who is anchored to his work on plays in New York, and is torn between his single-mindedness and his family in Marriage Story. But it is Joaquin Phoenix in Joker who dominates in this category. He seamlessly combines sympathy with revulsion just as he appears to be laughing and crying at the same time. He has won the Golden Globe, Actors Guild, and BAFTA awards, and he will win the Oscar.

Pick: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Preference: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Director:

This is a tough one in terms of who I believe deserves to win, except I would eliminate Tarantino, who is a very talented filmmaker, but I was not impressed with Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood. Either Greta Gerwig for Little Women or James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari should have taken his place. Martin Scorsese uses advanced technology in The Irishman to tell his story over time. But despite its length, there is an immediacy to the scenes between the characters. There are no drawn-out violent episodes. People are quickly disposable in the broken world depicted. They become visual casualties in the obituary stills noting their deaths. Todd Philips gives us a chilling nightmarish vision in what is really a horror film in Joker. Bong Joon Ho in Parasite presents his own nightmare of a film with as much polish as any Hollywood movie. But, Sam Mendes has given us a visually stunning movie in 1917, whose technical virtuosity is used to bring a world war down to the personal level. He has won the Golden Globe and the Directors Guild awards, and he will be the Academy’s choice.

Pick: Sam Mendes, 1917

Preference: Sam Mendes, 1917 (just edging out Bong Joon Ho and Todd Philips).

Best Cinematographer:

I’ll make this short. The Irishman excels mostly in the special effects category, so Roger Deakins wins easily for his amazing tracking work in 1917.

Pick: Roger Deakins, 1917

Preference: Roger Deakins, 1917 

Best Achievement in Editing:

JoJo Rabbit and Parasite won the “Eddie” awards for editing comedy and dramatic films. I’m going rogue on this one and preferred Ford v Ferrari with its dazzling race sequences.

Pick: Yang Jinmo, Parasite

Preference: Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford v Ferrari

Best Original Screenplay:

I hope Quentin Tarantino does not win his third screenplay Oscar for Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.  The other ones he won were deserving, but not here. Rian Johnson’s Knives Out, is a witty, fun take on an Agatha Christie type mystery, with some satire on relatives inheriting their wealth and attitudes towards immigrants. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns provide some nice irony in 1917, but the film is mostly a visual achievement. Noah Baumbach’s script in Marriage Story deftly combines satiric humor and heart-wrenching sadness. However, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won in Parasite have crafted a dramatically focused, well-structured story that also deftly handles a mixture of humor and tragedy, but also in its details cautions us about a world-wide problem. Their script won the Writers Guild award.

Pick: Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won

Preference: Parasite, Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won

Best Adapted Screenplay:

As I’ve already noted, I don’t think the screenplay of Little Women was entirely successful because of the interrupted timeline and JoJo Rabbit was inconsistent in its narrative tone. The Two Popes did a good job of using dialogue to try and reveal what made its real-life characters tick. The Irishman allowed the audience to use Robert De Niro’s primarily unemotional Frank Sheeran as an unfiltered tool to view the world he descended into and which eventually literally and figuratively crippled him. JoJo Rabbit received the Writers Guild award, and will probably win, but my selection is Joker for creating a backstory for the villain that turned the Batman tale on its head, inverting the roles of hero and villain.

Pick: JoJo Rabbit, Taika Waititi

Preference:  Joker, Todd Phillips and Scott Silver

The next film to be analyzed is The Apartment.